Part of Other Country → Personalist Autocracy
On this date, South Sudan gained independence from the Republic of Sudan as the outcome of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed on 01/09/2005 between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the government of Sudan. The CPA granted the region of South Sudan a six-year transitional period of self-rule and allowed for an independence referendum, which took place from 01/09 to 15/2011. The results showed an overwhelming majority for independence from Sudan, granted on 07/09/2011.95F1 Salva Kiir Mayardit was elected president of the semiautonomous region of Southern Sudan from 04/11-15/2010 and remained president after South Sudan gained independence.96F2 The president cannot be impeached and has the authority to dismiss state governors and dissolve the legislature and state assemblies. A permanent constitution has not been published.97F3 We code this regime change event as a negotiated transition because the independence resulted from the peace agreement. As classified by FH for this regime period, the country is scored from 11 to 14 as not free, which corresponds to our interpretation of not free. According to LIED, no multiparty executive or legislative elections were held during this period. However, the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan 2011 (TCSS), enforced on the day of independence, introduced universal suffrage (Diehl/van der Horst 2013).98F4 On 12/15/2013 the South Sudanese civil war started. It was a multi-sided civil war in South Sudan between forces of the government and opposition forces. In December 2013, President Kiir accused his former deputy Riek Machar and ten others of attempting a coup d’état. Machar denied trying to start a coup and fled to lead the SPLM – in opposition (SPLM-IO). Fighting broke out between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and SPLM-IO, igniting the civil war. Ugandan troops were deployed to fight alongside the South Sudanese government.99F5 On 08/17/2015 the South Sudanese government and Machar’s rebels signed a peace agreement on, brokered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), temporarily stopping the fighting. As part of the peace accord, Machar returned to Juba and was sworn in as vice president on 04/26/2016.100F6 On 07/07/2016 the 2015 peace agreement collapsed after clashes between Kiir’s and Machar’s forces broke out. The fighting spreads across South Sudan and the southern Equatoria region.101F7 Consequently, Machar fled the country, and the rebel chief negotiator, Taban Deng Gai, replaced Machar as acting vice president, rejected by Machar as he had fired Deng Gai before.102F6 On 09/12/2018, President Kiir and rebel factions signed a second peace deal. However, rebels led by General Thomas Cirillo in Equatoria refused to sign the agreement and continued fighting.103F7 On 02/22/2020 after months of renewed negotiations, Machar returned to Juba and formed a unity government, the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity, with Kiir on this date. They declared an end to the civil war.104F7 The transitional government has postponed the 2023 general elections to late 2024.105F8 The SPLM holds significant influence in the political arena, with the majority of competition occurring within the movement itself, following its fragmentation at the onset of the civil war. Kiir’s intolerance towards dissent within the SPLM exacerbated the conflict. Both the government and the legislature, lacking electoral credibility, struggle to exert authority over the nation's territory.106F2 In summary, the political developments in South Sudan since independence, including the concentration of power in the presidency and the absence of competitive elections align with the attributes of a personalist autocracy. Regarding political liberties, LIED only does consider the country from 2012 onwards and identifies political liberties as absent for the entire regime period. V-Dem’s PCLI is classified by us as indicating that political liberties are not really present until 2013 and in 2020 and are absent for the remaining years. In 2012 and 2023, V-Dem‘s JCE is interpreted by us as indicating that judicial constraints on the executive were limited, and V-Dem‘s LCE is classified by us as indicating that legislative constraints on the executive were also limited. For the remaining years, V-Dem‘s JCE is interpreted by us as indicating that judicial constraints on the executive were absent, while V-Dem‘s LCE is classified by us as indicating that legislative constraints on the executive were limited.
Personalist Autocracy as of 07/01/2025 continued.