Va-PoReg Country Report Tanzania 1964–2025

Zanzibar merged with Tanganyika on this date. The new country was named the United Republic of Tanganyika and Zanzibar.¹ This significant event was spearheaded by Julius Nyerere, the first President of Tanganyika, and Abeid Amani Karume, the first President of Zanzibar. Nyerere, a leading figure in the country's journey to independence from British colonial rule, became the first President of the united country, while Karume became the Vice President. The government of the newly united Tanzania was legitimized through a combination of legal, political, and symbolic measures.² The union was formalized by the Articles of Union, a set of documents that outlined the terms and conditions of the merger between Tanganyika and Zanzibar. This legal framework was crucial in establishing the legitimacy of the united government, setting the foundation for a single sovereign state.³ While there were some independent newspapers and magazines, and some freedom of speech and assembly, the government was quick to crack down on any dissent that it perceived as a threat to its authority. Therefore, LIED identifies no political liberties being present and our interpretation of V-Dem’s PCLI indicates them as ambiguous. Based on our observations, multiparty executive and legislative elections were held during this period, which aligns with the observations of LIED. LIED declares the elections as not competitive, V-Dem’s CEI as ambiguously clean, but the EF&FI as free and fair. According to Polity5, during this period, the executive encountered slight limitations on decision-making power imposed by other institutions. According to our interpretation V’Dem’s LDI reflects a not really scores. We classify the regime in this period as an electoral hybrid regime. For the relevant period, V-Dem's JCE and LCE are both interpreted by us as indicating robust constraints on the executive.

On 07/10/1965, Tanzania’s new constitution established a formal one-party system, designating the Tanganyika African National Union (TANU) as the sole legal party on the mainland and the Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) as the sole party in Zanzibar. Although elections continued, competition was restricted to candidates within the ruling parties. This regime change was initiated by the governing elite through a constitutional reorganization, ending multiparty electoral competition. A multiparty system was legalized on 06/17/1992 (Lansford 2021: 1630). In 1977 TANU in the mainland and the Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) in Zanzibar were the dominant parties that merged to form the Revolutionary State Party (Chama Cha Mapinduzi, CCM) in 1977, which continued to govern Tanzania for several decades. This political arrangement was justified on the grounds of promoting national unity and avoiding the ethnic and regional divisions that plagued many newly independent African states. The legitimacy of the government was thus a complex interplay of legal formalization, political consolidation, and the strategic management of public discourse. While the government faced criticisms for its limitations on political freedoms, it also garnered support for its efforts to foster national unity and development in the post-colonial era. According to LIED, both executive and legislative elections were held, but they were not categorized as multiparty. As per Polity5's classification, the executive's authority was subject to minor institutional constraints during this time. During this regime period, V-Dem's JCE is classified by us as indicating that judicial constraints on the executive were robust, while V-Dem's LCE is classified by us as indicating that legislative constraints on the executive were also robust. According to FH’s classification for 1972-1994, a score between 11 and 14 makes the country not free, which we also place in the not free category. Per FH’s evaluation for 1995, the country scores from 9 to 10 as not free, which we categorize as rather not free. For 1965 and 1966, LIED identifies political liberties as absent, and V-Dem's PCLI is classified by us as ambiguous regarding the status of political liberties. For 1967-1981, LIED identifies political liberties as absent, while V-Dem's PCLI is classified by us as indicating that political liberties are not really present. In the timeframe 1982-1991, LIED identifies political liberties as absent, while V-Dem's PCLI is classified by us as being ambiguous about the status of political liberties. For the rest of the regime period, LIED identifies political liberties as absent, while V-Dem's PCLI is classified by us as indicating that political liberties were somewhat present.

10[&11]/29/1995 End One-Party Autocracy/Start Electoral Hybrid Regime: On these days, multiparty elections were held in Tanzania. Multipartyism was enabled by the Eighth constitutional Amendment (Act No. 4 of 1992) which came into force on 07/01/1992 (Fimbo 1995: 18). Despite the multiparty elections, the CCM retained its control of the country, with its candidate Benjamin Mkapa winning the presidential election, and the party winning 186 of the 232 constituencies.⁴ Many credited the outcome to the majority electoral system, while others pointed to extensive electoral fraud, especially in the Zanzibari voting process (Lansford 2021: 1632). During the 2000 general elections, President Mkapa clinched a second five-year term with 71.7 percent of the vote, facing a fragmented opposition. The CCM retained its firm grip on the assembly, securing a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives (Lansford 2021: 1632). Widespread uprising against alleged irregularities emerged after the elections in October 2000. Government security forces subsequently repressed the demonstrations in Zanzibar by opening fire and assaulting thousands of unarmed demonstrators and others according to a report by Human Rights Watch.⁵ Subsequent elections such as the 2020 general elections, were also marred in controversy.⁶ Since 1995 V-Dem’s CEI indicates multiple changes in terms of the election process. Based on our observations, multiparty executive and legislative elections were held during this period, which aligns with the observations of LIED. LIED scores the elections as not competitive for the entire time. Moreover, until 2000 the cleanliness is ambiguous. Between 2001 and 2005 not real cleanliness has been pointed out. Since 2006 there is a return to ambiguous cleanliness for the country’s elections. Since 2021 the elections scored not real cleanliness again. Furthermore, V-Dem’s EF&FI indicates the country’s election are somewhat free and fair until 2019. Since 2020 the overall condition are classified as ambiguous. As classified by FH for 1995-1998, the country scores between 9 and 10 as not free, which we interpret as rather not free. Per FH’s scoring for 1999 to 2001, the country is classified as partly free with a score of 8, which we categorize as rather not free. As classified by FH for 2002 to 2016, the country is partly free with a score ranging from 6 to 7, which we place in the rather free category. Per FH’s scoring for 2017, the country is classified as partly free with a score of 8, which we categorize as rather not free. According to FH, from 2018 to 2023, a score between 9 and 10 makes the country not free, which aligns with our interpretation of rather not free. In 2024 the score worsened to 11 which is considered as not free by both FH and our framework. The LDI displays steadily moderate score. From 2017 to 2021 and from 2024 onwards the Tanzania was classified as not free by FH, from 1995 to 2016 and from 2018 onwards as partly free. According to Polity5, from 1995 to 2014, the executive encountered slight limitations on decision-making power imposed by other institutions. From 2015 onward, the executive's constraints were categorized as Intermediate Category 2, between slight and substantial limitations. Tanzania is in this regime period classified by us as an electoral hybrid regime. From 1995 to 2015 and in 2018, V-Dem's JCE is interpreted by us as indicating that judicial constraints on the executive were robust, while V-Dem's LCE is classified by us as indicating that legislative constraints on the executive were comprehensive. For the remaining years, V-Dem's JCE and LCE are both interpreted by us as indicating comprehensive constraints on the executive. For the relevant period, LIED identifies political liberties as absent, while V-Dem's PCLI is classified by us as indicating that political liberties are somewhat present.

Electoral Hybrid Regime as of 07/01/2025 continued.

Additional sources (Fengler 1999, Hopkins 1971, Pinkney 1997, Skinlo 2007)